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Author Topic: The coming Oil Crunch
Wintermute
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posted 03-28-2005 11:58 PM     Profile for Wintermute   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message   Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote
It may be time to start preparing for harder times.

What's going to happen as we start running out of cheap gas to guzzle?

quote:
A few weeks ago, the price of oil ratcheted above fifty-five dollars a barrel, which is about twenty dollars a barrel more than a year ago. The next day, the oil story was buried on page six of the New York Times business section. Apparently, the price of oil is not considered significant news, even when it goes up five bucks a barrel in the span of ten days. That same day, the stock market shot up more than a hundred points because, CNN said, government data showed no signs of inflation. Note to clueless nation: Call planet Earth.

Carl Jung, one of the fathers of psychology, famously remarked that "people cannot stand too much reality." What you're about to read may challenge your assumptions about the kind of world we live in, and especially the kind of world into which events are propelling us. We are in for a rough ride through uncharted territory.

It has been very hard for Americans -- lost in dark raptures of nonstop infotainment, recreational shopping and compulsive motoring -- to make sense of the gathering forces that will fundamentally alter the terms of everyday life in our technological society. Even after the terrorist attacks of 9/11, America is still sleepwalking into the future. I call this coming time the Long Emergency.


The Long Emergency

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Verdammt durch das Fleisch. Gerettet durch das Blut.


Posts: 519 | From: Qwghlm | Registered: Dec 1999  |  IP: Logged
burble
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posted 03-29-2005 12:32 AM     Profile for burble   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message   Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote
yeah. we ignore it becuase we're idiots.

or maybe it's becuase we're not all as paranoid as that guy. we have enough bad news and random fears being crammed down our throats every day...we live in the most afraid nation in the world.

and we're supposed to put gas prices at the head of our priorities? fuck that. while it's definately more news worthy than laci peterson, terry shiavo, jessica lynch, or what the fuck ever, it's still just not that damn crucial.


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dAm
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posted 03-29-2005 12:58 AM     Profile for dAm   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message   Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote
anyways, about the only way to prepare is to trade in gas guzzlers for 50mpg VW's. Unless you want to get a 10,000 gallon storage tank and fill it up for future use. I would think the best approach would be to lobby the federal and local governments to drop some of the taxes on it. After all, the actual price of the gas at the pump is usually less than 50% of the actual price. (this figure could have changed in the last couple of years. don't quote me) The rest is all taxes and it will probably be a cold day in hell before any government entity gives up the dollars coming in from. that.

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Shut-up and fish


Posts: 577 | From: Calgary | Registered: Nov 2001  |  IP: Logged
Wintermute
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posted 03-29-2005 01:05 AM     Profile for Wintermute   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message   Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote
quote:
yeah. we ignore it becuase we're idiots.

I'd say that's a fair assessent for the most part.

quote:
or maybe it's becuase we're not all as paranoid as that guy. we have enough bad news and random fears being crammed down our throats every day...we live in the most afraid nation in the world.

I can't disagree with you in that 'Americans' are greatly influenced by fear. It's a very effective tool of manipulation, however there are real issues that warrant real concern on our parts. Unfortunately, Americans are also overstimulated and therefore apathetic, passive, and acquiescent when it comes to our futures and those things we should care about. I think we may also be the greediest country as well. Our corporate greed and boundless consumption can't have helped the situation.

quote:
and we're supposed to put gas prices at the head of our priorities? fuck that. while it's definately more news worthy than laci peterson, terry shiavo, jessica lynch, or what the fuck ever, it's still just not that damn crucial.

That's going to depend on your priorities as an individual. As a society, as a nation, the oil crunch will effect us all at least indirectly. I don't know. You may not need gasoline because you don't drive a car, but as you may have read, the petroleum industry has a profound relationship with our agriculture, and most of our industry. A million things that we take for granted every day are made of petroleum products, and need petrol to get transported to us. It's not just gas prices that will suffer. It's our entire economy. 9 out every 10 times oil prices shoot up, inflation follows That's going to effect everyone directly unless you live as a survivalist or something.

I just have to disagree. The way I see it, it is crucial. Everything may not pan out quite as badly as this guy thinks it might, but if we continue to not care, the situation will snowball beyond control.

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Verdammt durch das Fleisch. Gerettet durch das Blut.


Posts: 519 | From: Qwghlm | Registered: Dec 1999  |  IP: Logged
burble
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posted 03-29-2005 01:47 AM     Profile for burble   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message   Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote
let me rephrase-

it IS a crucial subject, but, we as american consumers can do not a damned thing about it.

energy is limited. period. we switch to hydrogen power, we need more energy to produce it. we switch to electric power, we need more plants to churn it out. until someone finds a way that we can power the entire nation on wind and solar power, we will continue to use up consumeable resources. what's the point in making doomsday predictions (unreasonable ones, at that) like the guy who wrote that article?


Posts: 528 | From: Nashville, TN | Registered: Nov 1999  |  IP: Logged
FS
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posted 03-29-2005 04:55 AM     Profile for FS   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message   Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote
switching to fuel-economic vehicles WOULD do a fuckload of good. Maybe you haven't noticed, but quite a few americans prefer private cars over public transportation. Sure, trucks use gas too, but there's quite many cars compared to trucks.

Also there's enough wind power for the entire Earth, if it would just be harnessed. Quoting a pop-science magazine, wind energy potential is good for 96 petawatthours, which is six times the energy consumption in 2001. The down side is that energy would be 25 times as expensive as today (based on current day prices of building and maintaining wind parks), so a simple doubling of oil prices isn't enough to justify wind power on economic factors alone.

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quote:
Originally posted by FS:
Wow, I can't believe I'm agreeing with FS on this one

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Cacophonous
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posted 03-29-2005 09:49 AM     Profile for Cacophonous   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message   Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote
FS - One problem is that many of our cities don't have adequate public transportation. I live in a small city outside the suburbs of Detroit so we don't even have buses or taxis for that matter.

Of course many of us could go with vehicles that get better gas milage.

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dAm
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posted 03-29-2005 11:43 AM     Profile for dAm   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message   Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote
Here in Alberta we've taken some major steps towards getting energy from the wind. Hell, there's a few places in the south that have so many friggin wind turbines you'd think they just sprouted up out of the ground and started growing on their own. Our light rail C-Train public transit system is the first in North America that is powered 100% by wind (Green) energy. Homeowners and businesses also have the option to purchase the Green Energy albeit it costs a tad more. We opted for that at our house and in theory we're getting 100% Green Energy. I guess they don't actually seperate the electrons but just purchase more Green power from the power grid as more customers request it. I think the McDonalds here have started going 50% Green too.
This is mostly done to cut down on emissions but also goes hand in hand to cutting down the reliance on fossil fuels.

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Shut-up and fish


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Mad Max
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posted 03-29-2005 12:11 PM     Profile for Mad Max   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message   Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote
Even if the price of gas doubled we would still get by. Look at the UK, gas is about $6 or $7 a gallon and has been much higher than over here for years (ever?).

One reason people don't give a crap is because we are not as likely to feel the pinch, certainly not as much as future generations and who cares about them? I mean, who REALLY cares about them? People driving cars that guzzle a gallon of gas for less than 25 miles certainly don't and that includes me. I like to think / pretend that I care but it I REALLY did then I would ditch my magnum and buy something that is a little less sporty and get a hybrid or something like that. I used to take public transport but, like Cac, I live in a town that doesn't have anything, not even sidewalks. When my relatives visit they go where we take them and that's it. When I lived closer to Boston in a town (Everett) that had a decent public transport system ( through necessity I might add) they could get most places but not any more.

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Miss you guys.


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Flux
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posted 03-29-2005 02:33 PM     Profile for Flux   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message   Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote
I'm not surprised gas is going up. Over in Europe its $5 or $6 per gallon. I find it funny that we bitch when our gas prices rise above $1.80. I'm all for finding and using other alternatives, and when I can afford it, I'll get a hybrid, and live close to work. Living close enough to not drive will save a fuck ton of money per year. Let's see...

25 mpg
$2.19/gal
30 mi. commute 5 times a week for a year is
$1,366.56

Interesting.

quote:
Originally posted by Cacophonous:
FS - One problem is that many of our cities don't have adequate public transportation.

Are you kidding? Most cities have fine public transportation, people just don't use it. Cleveland has busses and a subway, but barely anyone uses it because too many people live outside the city.

FS - you're right, we prefer owning cars instead of using busses, and it is a big part of the problem. Another part is the fact that we have to commute an average of prolly 30 miles one-way to work. By bike it would take at least an hour and a half to get there. If white flight wasn't as bad as it was, people wouldn't have to drive as far to get to where they work.

Mute - you own an electric or hybrid car? solar plates on your roof to offset the electric bill or for water heating? walk, bike or use public transportation instead of drive as often as possible? point fingers at us when you do. kthxbye.

[ 03-29-2005: Message edited by: Flux ]

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FS
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posted 03-29-2005 05:12 PM     Profile for FS   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message   Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote
Many people living in Espoo but working in Helsinki, and quite all right with making the trip by train. Just under 30 miles from the center of Espoo to the center of Helsinki.

But yes cars are a lot more common in Espoo than in Helsinki, but they're also expanding the subway to reach over there, etc. It will be a better future. Personally I hope private transport would be banned within Helsinki, other than taxies, buses, and private cars used for carrying heavy loads or disabled people.

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quote:
Originally posted by FS:
Wow, I can't believe I'm agreeing with FS on this one

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Cacophonous
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posted 03-29-2005 07:58 PM     Profile for Cacophonous   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message   Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote
Flux I was not kidding about the lack of 'adequate' public transportation in many cities.

New York has a great system with the subway. Simply awesome and cheap way to get around.

Chicago has a great system.

Buses are not a great system but serve a purpose.

The city I live in which is a city not a town or village is fairly large, with sidewalks and streetlight yet we have no buses and last I checked not a single taxi. The city I work in which is a bit larger has the same problem. My brother lives in a even larger city, Ann Arbor, which has shit for public transportation. It may have a taxi company but I don't think a normal public bus system.

Detroit is as close as we get to public transportation here in Michigan and it does not have a train system like chicago or a subway like NY. It has buses and of course the taxi. Not adequate. Then again it is the motor city and all...

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Snag
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posted 03-30-2005 04:22 AM     Profile for Snag   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message   Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote
Gas just went up here to 89.9 cents/liter...which is about $4.16 a gallon. What a crock of shit. We send so much of our oil to the US to get refined and have sold back to us inflated.
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Cacophonous
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posted 03-30-2005 07:42 AM     Profile for Cacophonous   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message   Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote
It would cost you over $5.00 a gallon if you refined it yourself!

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Posts: 5571 | From: Yes | Registered: Jun 1999  |  IP: Logged
Snag
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posted 03-30-2005 12:06 PM     Profile for Snag   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message   Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote
so we produce it and it would cost more if we refined it? Why is it, we produce it, YOU refine it and we still pay more than you? I don't see that logic Cac...
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dAm
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posted 03-30-2005 12:28 PM     Profile for dAm   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message   Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Snag:
so we produce it and it would cost more if we refined it? Why is it, we produce it, YOU refine it and we still pay more than you? I don't see that logic Cac...

The answer is simple. Taxes.

quote:
Myth: Canadians pay more for gas than Americans do.
Fact: Wrong. As the Industry Canada study pointed out, "Canadian pump prices in urban markets have been roughly equal to – or even less than – U.S. pump prices for several years, if the higher Canadian tax content is excluded."

In fact, a breakdown of consumer prices shows that we pay the second lowest pre-tax price for gas, just slightly behind the Germans. Germans pay 85.8 cents/litre (US$) which is 18.8 cents retail cost and A whopping 67 cents for taxes. In Canada we pay 39.6 cents/litre (US$), broken down as 19.7 cents cost and 19.9 cents for taxes. Our American friends pay 31.8 cents/litre but the bulk of this is the retail cost of 21.7 cents (2 cents more expensive than Canada) and a mere 10.1 cents in taxes.



Taken from here
And here's a breakdown per Province. Keep in mind that none of this is as per current prices. The base price of crude has risen since these examples and probably the taxes have too.

[ 03-30-2005: Message edited by: dAm ]

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Shut-up and fish


Posts: 577 | From: Calgary | Registered: Nov 2001  |  IP: Logged
dAm
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posted 03-30-2005 12:36 PM     Profile for dAm   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message   Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote
and here is yet another breakdown

According to the EIA, the breakdown on U.S. gasoline price inputs looks like this, for $1.40/gallon gas:

Crude Oil -- 42 percent.
Taxes -- 30 percent.
Refining -- 15 percent.
The other 13 percent goes to distribution and marketing.
In the U.K., 73 percent of the price of a liter of petrol goes to taxes.

Now there's not much we can do about the price of the crude, refining and distribution so that leaves Taxes as the most logical thing to swing a bat at. Just be glad we don't have PST here.

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Shut-up and fish


Posts: 577 | From: Calgary | Registered: Nov 2001  |  IP: Logged
dAm
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posted 03-30-2005 12:45 PM     Profile for dAm   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message   Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote
ok, my last breakdown was for US gas. Can't find the same breakdown for Cdn gas but the taxes are at least 40% and probaly closer to 45%. And here's the kicker snag. The GST is added to the base price +taxes so in essence we're paying taxes on tax. Nice eh?
ok, found one. This breaks down the price in Calgary 2003. It looks like I was wrong because this shows only 34% in taxes but everything else I found pointed to 40%+

[ 03-30-2005: Message edited by: dAm ]

[ 03-30-2005: Message edited by: dAm ]

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Shut-up and fish


Posts: 577 | From: Calgary | Registered: Nov 2001  |  IP: Logged
Cacophonous
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posted 03-30-2005 01:48 PM     Profile for Cacophonous   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message   Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote
Snag - I was factoring in the cost of building your own oil refineries or do you have them already?

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Snag
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posted 04-01-2005 04:10 PM     Profile for Snag   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message   Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote
we have refineries...quite a few of them. But how do you fight American Corporations and the subsequent governments that are in cahoots with them? I mean, look at the Chicago pipeline:

From Ft. Mac and Edmonton scuttling across the region down to the US.

And dam, I don't care about the tax figures...the fact is at the pump WE PAY MORE!

I say refine it here, and tax the shit out of the Americans! We got the supply, they got the demand. When is Canada going to use NAFTA to ITS advantage for a change? Out of three countries in NAFTA, two have benefitted (US exploits the other 2 and Mexico had nowhere to go but up!).

Sad thing is, the US governments through the years have diplomatically done to Canada what is currently being done in the middle east (oil specific and political regime exclusive).


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Cacophonous
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posted 04-01-2005 04:26 PM     Profile for Cacophonous   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message   Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote
People that worry about the price of gas need to re-think their career choice.

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Posts: 5571 | From: Yes | Registered: Jun 1999  |  IP: Logged
Snag
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posted 04-01-2005 06:35 PM     Profile for Snag   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message   Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote
Cac, that is a statement blanketted in ignorance. The price of gas reflects MANY things. From the price of heating your house to the price of your sneakers!!

Because we rely so heavily on petroleum products we are captive. Without oil we would be in serious shit. Any idea how many of your clothes are either made or held together with sythetic fibres? Or your car, your furniture, your appliances. We have BLINDLY developed a dependance upon oil and instead of the government ensuring the populace does not fall victim to exploitation by the oil barons, they have gotten in bed with them...there is money to be made afterall through taxes and political contributions.

Oil is like tobacco in regards to how the governments handle it. They recognize something but never do anything about it. They blast tobacco. It is deadly. It violates others rights to clean air. It burdens the health care system. So instead of outlawing it, they just continue to tax it. Why? Because they know that as long as it is available, there will ALWAYS be people there to smoke and thus pay taxes.

Our governments do not give a shit about us. They only care about how they can manipulate us and exploit us and they are in league with large corporations too!!

[ 04-01-2005: Message edited by: Snag ]


Posts: 2606 | From: Canada | Registered: Nov 1999  |  IP: Logged
Cacophonous
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posted 04-01-2005 08:22 PM     Profile for Cacophonous   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message   Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote
I never implied that the price of gasoline would not affect the cost of everything else. I understand how it works. I'm still not worried. I do understand that people that are in a moderate or low income bracket may be worried though, hence my sarcastic comment.

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Posts: 5571 | From: Yes | Registered: Jun 1999  |  IP: Logged
Wintermute
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posted 04-01-2005 11:36 PM     Profile for Wintermute   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message   Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Cacophonous:
People that worry about the price of gas need to re-think their career choice.

That comes off as being rather elitest. There are many primarily in the lower and working classes who have to worry about gas prices. I'm glad that you don't have to worry about those things, but there are those who are doing even what they love, and still just getting by without having to worry about rising gas prices.

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Verdammt durch das Fleisch. Gerettet durch das Blut.


Posts: 519 | From: Qwghlm | Registered: Dec 1999  |  IP: Logged

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